Analytics Glossary
Your complete reference for fantasy football metrics and analytics terms. Learn what the numbers mean and how to use them to dominate your league.
Projection Metrics
Average signed error in projections. Positive values indicate projections tend to overestimate performance, negative values indicate underestimation. Helps identify systematic projection tendencies.
Example:
A bias of +2.5 means projections on average overestimate by 2.5 points per game.
Average miss size without considering direction. Lower values indicate more accurate projections. Measures typical projection accuracy.
Example:
MAE of 4.2 means projections are off by about 4.2 points per game on average.
Related terms:
Similar to MAE but penalizes large misses more heavily. Useful for identifying players with volatile week-to-week performance that projections struggle to predict.
Example:
RMSE of 8.5 vs MAE of 5.0 suggests frequent large misses (boom/bust pattern).
Related terms:
Projection error scaled by the player's typical output. Allows fair comparison across players with different scoring levels (e.g., QB vs TE).
Example:
MAPE of 15% means projections are typically off by 15% of expected points.
How well projections track real outcomes (0–1 scale). Values above 0.7 indicate strong tracking; below 0.4 suggests projections frequently miss the mark.
Example:
Correlation of 0.85 means projections reliably predict relative performance week-to-week.
Related terms:
General Metrics
Stability of weekly performance. Higher consistency scores indicate steadier output; lower scores suggest boom/bust volatility.
Example:
Consistency of 92 indicates reliable, steady scoring; 65 suggests high variance.
Related terms:
Measure of week-to-week scoring variance. Higher volatility means more boom/bust potential; lower volatility indicates steady floor.
Example:
Volatility of 12.5 suggests large weekly scoring swings; 4.2 indicates steady output.
Related terms:
Your roster's overall week-to-week volatility. Higher risk means more boom/bust potential; balanced portfolios mix steady and volatile players.
Example:
Portfolio risk of 35% suggests moderate variance; 60% indicates highly volatile lineup.
Related terms:
Higher chance a player underperforms consensus projections this week. Often due to tough matchups, injury concerns, or usage declines.
Example:
Top WR facing shutdown corner with injury designation carries elevated bust risk.
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Value Metrics
Players showing early signals of increased production through improved usage, favorable matchups, or expanded opportunity (injury, trades, etc.).
Example:
A WR3 seeing 20% more routes and easier upcoming matchups is a breakout candidate.
Related terms:
Composite measure of available upside from favorable matchups, waiver targets, and trade prospects. Higher scores indicate more actionable plays.
Example:
Opportunity score of 8.5/10 suggests multiple high-upside moves available this week.
Related terms:
High-confidence, low-effort move that can improve this week's outcome. Typically based on matchup advantages or injury replacements.
Example:
Starting a backup RB facing a bottom-ranked run defense is a quick win.
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Under-rostered or under-valued player poised to outperform expectations. Often identified through usage trends or schedule analysis.
Example:
A TE with rising target share facing soft coverage matchups is a sleeper candidate.
Related terms:
Usage Metrics
Rising snap share, routes run, or target share over recent weeks. Positive momentum often precedes production increases.
Example:
Snap share increasing from 45% to 65% over three weeks signals usage momentum.
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Percentage of passing plays where the player runs a route. Key metric for receiver opportunity independent of targets.
Example:
Running routes on 85% of dropbacks signals high involvement even if targets are low.
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Percentage of team targets going to a player. Primary indicator of receiving opportunity and role size.
Example:
Target share of 28% indicates primary receiving option; 15% is secondary role.
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Percentage of offensive plays where the player is on the field. Foundation metric for overall opportunity.
Example:
Snap share above 70% indicates three-down back or every-down receiver.
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Total downfield depth of targets (regardless of completion). Indicates role type: deep threat vs underneath receiver.
Example:
Air yards of 450+ per game signals downfield threat; <200 suggests underneath role.
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Matchup Metrics
Favorable upcoming matchups based on opponent defensive weakness. Quantified by opponent points allowed or adjusted defensive rankings.
Example:
Facing three bottom-5 pass defenses in next four weeks creates a schedule edge.
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Defensive quality of the opposing team, often measured by points allowed or adjusted defensive rankings. Key contextual factor for projections.
Example:
Opponent strength of 2.5 (scale 0-10) indicates elite defense; 8.5 suggests soft matchup.
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Total downfield depth of targets (regardless of completion). Indicates role type: deep threat vs underneath receiver.
Example:
Air yards of 450+ per game signals downfield threat; <200 suggests underneath role.
Related terms:
Average signed error in projections. Positive values indicate projections tend to overestimate performance, negative values indicate underestimation. Helps identify systematic projection tendencies.
Example:
A bias of +2.5 means projections on average overestimate by 2.5 points per game.
Players showing early signals of increased production through improved usage, favorable matchups, or expanded opportunity (injury, trades, etc.).
Example:
A WR3 seeing 20% more routes and easier upcoming matchups is a breakout candidate.
Related terms:
Higher chance a player underperforms consensus projections this week. Often due to tough matchups, injury concerns, or usage declines.
Example:
Top WR facing shutdown corner with injury designation carries elevated bust risk.
Related terms:
Stability of weekly performance. Higher consistency scores indicate steadier output; lower scores suggest boom/bust volatility.
Example:
Consistency of 92 indicates reliable, steady scoring; 65 suggests high variance.
Related terms:
How well projections track real outcomes (0–1 scale). Values above 0.7 indicate strong tracking; below 0.4 suggests projections frequently miss the mark.
Example:
Correlation of 0.85 means projections reliably predict relative performance week-to-week.
Related terms:
Average miss size without considering direction. Lower values indicate more accurate projections. Measures typical projection accuracy.
Example:
MAE of 4.2 means projections are off by about 4.2 points per game on average.
Related terms:
Projection error scaled by the player's typical output. Allows fair comparison across players with different scoring levels (e.g., QB vs TE).
Example:
MAPE of 15% means projections are typically off by 15% of expected points.
Defensive quality of the opposing team, often measured by points allowed or adjusted defensive rankings. Key contextual factor for projections.
Example:
Opponent strength of 2.5 (scale 0-10) indicates elite defense; 8.5 suggests soft matchup.
Related terms:
Composite measure of available upside from favorable matchups, waiver targets, and trade prospects. Higher scores indicate more actionable plays.
Example:
Opportunity score of 8.5/10 suggests multiple high-upside moves available this week.
Related terms:
Your roster's overall week-to-week volatility. Higher risk means more boom/bust potential; balanced portfolios mix steady and volatile players.
Example:
Portfolio risk of 35% suggests moderate variance; 60% indicates highly volatile lineup.
Related terms:
High-confidence, low-effort move that can improve this week's outcome. Typically based on matchup advantages or injury replacements.
Example:
Starting a backup RB facing a bottom-ranked run defense is a quick win.
Related terms:
Similar to MAE but penalizes large misses more heavily. Useful for identifying players with volatile week-to-week performance that projections struggle to predict.
Example:
RMSE of 8.5 vs MAE of 5.0 suggests frequent large misses (boom/bust pattern).
Related terms:
Percentage of passing plays where the player runs a route. Key metric for receiver opportunity independent of targets.
Example:
Running routes on 85% of dropbacks signals high involvement even if targets are low.
Related terms:
Favorable upcoming matchups based on opponent defensive weakness. Quantified by opponent points allowed or adjusted defensive rankings.
Example:
Facing three bottom-5 pass defenses in next four weeks creates a schedule edge.
Related terms:
Under-rostered or under-valued player poised to outperform expectations. Often identified through usage trends or schedule analysis.
Example:
A TE with rising target share facing soft coverage matchups is a sleeper candidate.
Related terms:
Percentage of offensive plays where the player is on the field. Foundation metric for overall opportunity.
Example:
Snap share above 70% indicates three-down back or every-down receiver.
Related terms:
Percentage of team targets going to a player. Primary indicator of receiving opportunity and role size.
Example:
Target share of 28% indicates primary receiving option; 15% is secondary role.
Related terms:
Rising snap share, routes run, or target share over recent weeks. Positive momentum often precedes production increases.
Example:
Snap share increasing from 45% to 65% over three weeks signals usage momentum.
Related terms:
Measure of week-to-week scoring variance. Higher volatility means more boom/bust potential; lower volatility indicates steady floor.
Example:
Volatility of 12.5 suggests large weekly scoring swings; 4.2 indicates steady output.
Related terms:
Quick Reference
Lower is Better:
MAE, RMSE, MAPE, Bias (closer to 0)
Higher is Better:
Usage Momentum, Opportunity Score, Correlation, Consistency
Watch For:
High Volatility Index, Low Consistency, Bust Risk flags